SOLUTIONS-> Hit Song analysis & Polyphonic HMI FAQ



Why do music labels use you and what do they use you for?
When music labels are young they don't have much to lose so they take a lot of risks. That's why almost every kind of new and fresh sound and innovative style are first broken by independent labels. As the labels grow or get acquired by the majors they start to have more to worry about on the business side. They have share holders who expect them to make a profit, they have more infrastructure with people working who have families to feed etc. So they don't take nearly as many risks and they stick with the tried and true. This leads to two major complaints from consumers:
1. All the music on the radio sounds the same.
2. I just bought this CD and I only like two songs of the 12 on here.

and a major complaint from unsigned bands:
1. I have a new and fresh style that sounds and feels innovative but I can't get signed. The industry sucks!

We help labels address all of these issues by helping them look at their music and their market in new ways. We help them feel more confident in signing and releasing music that may not necessarily sound formulaic. We help them raise the bar for the quality standard of the music that makes in onto a given CD. We help them to see when promoting certain music is not likely to give them a return on their investment and we all know that every label releases more misses than hits. We help the labels waste less money so that money can be invested in developing new, better and more innovative artists
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Aren't music labels supposed to be looking for new and fresh sounds that would not be anything like past hit music?
Absolutely. Historically, what is pleasing to the human ear has not changed since man began writing music. What has changed are styles, performances, the instruments used and the way music is produced and recorded, but a compelling melody is still compelling and a series of random notes still sounds random to us. That is not to say everything has been invented, however so far, every new style of music that has come into being: country, rock, punk, grunge etc. have all had similar mathematical patterns and the hits in those genres have all come from the same hit clusters that exist today and anything that has fallen outside of those clusters has rarely been successful for it's musical qualities. For an explanation of a hit cluster please see our technology section.

Isn't music supposed to be art?
Yes, and artistic integrity and creativity are the lifeblood of the music industry and are of paramount importance to our business. Literature writing and movie making are also forms of art, however, the art of story development follows certain rules. Georges Polti, 19th century French author, identified 36 possible plots in literature that would hold the attention of the audience with the right amount of tension and subsequent resolution. Those rules existed before Polti identified them but by identifying them he helped writers become creative within guidelines that would help them connect with their audiences. Every story that is written, every movie made, from the blockbusters to the intellectual films generally follow these rules of plot. Even the weekly sitcoms follow these rules of plot because they are the only ones that hold our attention as humans.

All Polyphonic HMI has done is identify parameters in music in much the same way that Polti identified parameters in story lines and because music is more complicated than a story line it takes pattern recognizing computers to do it. Polyphonic did not invent the patterns. Hopefully by identifying them musicians can become better composers and more insightful and music labels can be left scratching their heads less often when a song doesn't perform in the market the way they expected it to.

Computers have no place in the making of music.
Our computers cannot create music, they can only analyze it. Our computers have not invented anything, rather they've only detected patterns and parameters that already existed. The telescope did not create the universe. It only allowed us to see it in a different way and to make better judgments and insights about it, and just like the telescope has its limitations so does our technology. We're continually finding better and more creative ways to help musicians and songwriters. By revealing some before-unseen scientific information about music we can use that to better understand the art and human's desire to be engulfed in compelling sound.

Leave it to the music industry to be so desperate as to use this service.
Our customers are the music labels but the real beneficiaries of our work are the people who create, perform and consume music. No matter what music you make you'd like to at least be able to support yourself and have your music enjoyed by a certain audience, and why deny that some of you would like to be tomorrow's superstars. Our technology does not take into high consideration the actual "sound" of your music, but rather the underlying mathematical patterns that humans have consistently found enjoyable throughout time. There's not just one hit song formula. There are many and no matter what your song sounds like it may have many attributes that will make it enjoyable to a large audience.

The music industry has taken a beating in the past few years. They are looking for solutions to address the concerns and criticisms they've been subject to. Many music label executives have lost their jobs and will never get them back in an industry that is shrinking. Today's executive know they cannot continue with business-as-usual and keep their jobs. The labels see that Hit Song Science might be a very good tool and they need time to use it, experiment with it and see how it goes. We will strive to make things better for everyone. Give us some time to show some real results. We think our technology could be a wonderful revolution for everyone from the labels to the garage band. We'll do our very best not to disappoint you.

Doesn't this technology just ensure that all music will end up sounding the same?
Absolutely not. We are acutely aware that due to the fact that we compare new music to past hits it sounds like we are looking for the same sorts of sounds. While we CAN do that it is not an inherent trait of our technology. We predicted the success of Norah Jones at a time when nothing in our past hit database sounded anything like her.
Patterns in music that are pleasing to the human ear have not changed much, if at all, since the times of the classical composers. For example, the dictionary describes melody as a series of notes strung together in a meaningful sequence.

Why are some sequences meaningful to us and make up a beautiful song and other sequences just sound like random notes?
While the number of possible melody patterns combined with all of the other variables in recorded music allow for a seemingly infinite number of combinations. The patterns that we find pleasing haven't changed a lot. What has changed are the instruments used, the styles, the way the music is performed etc. Our technology can actually help music labels gain confidence in promoting music that does not sound formulaic because we can show them that the music in question will be successful and that they will see a return on their investment in it. Keep in mind that most labels liked Norah Jones' music but did not feel they would make any money promoting it. Our technology can help during those kinds of evaluations.

Will your computers be spitting out soulless digi-hits we can't resist?
Our technology cannot create music. It is only capable of looking at music that historically we (the collective masses) have said is good and compare the patterns in it to those in new music. For this application we are using a database of past chart hits from either the US or the UK. We can and do create custom databases for music labels.

How does the technology work?
We use artificial intelligence applications as well as other methods to analyze the underlying mathematical patterns in music. Our technology does something called spectral deconvolution which is a fancy way of saying that we can isolate and separate many musical events that occur in a song. Some of these event are patterns in melody, harmony, chord progression, brilliance, fullness of sound, beat, tempo, rhythm, octave, and pitch. We then compare the patterns in new music (yours for example) to patterns in recent chart hits. By doing this combined with other mathematical calculations we've been able to develop a highly accurate and scientific tool. While this may sound like science fiction and that the results can't possibly be meaningful please keep in mind that we are working for major labels on both side of the Atlantic who trust and use our results to make decisions. Please see our explanation of the technology.

Will I get the same report as the music labels get?
The results we give you through this service are the same sort of results the music labels get from us and use the same technology. The difference is that the music labels get a lot more in-depth information and analyses on the music than we can provide you through this service. They can see a lot of nuances and gain insight into some of the music that helps them make business decisions and evaluations that can help them determine release order, promotion investment, market timing and where the breaking line is for them to see a return on their investment. We are assuming that you do not need that information and are only interested in knowing the hit potential of your music in today's market in a general sort of way. THAT is the information we give you here on this service.

Who is this service for?
Independent musicians, songwriters and labels. If you are looking at more in depth analysis for your current production process or to optimize your songs sequencing for your album, this service is not for you. Our professional packages will provide you with the right solution.

What is considered a good score?
We use a logarithmic scale where the distance between 4 and 5 is half the distance as that between 5 and 6 and that distance in turn is half that between 6 and 7 etc.

We tend to say that a score of 7.00 and higher has solid hit potential and scores below 4.00 do not. There are some instances in which a low score (below 4.0) can actually mean there is solid hit potential but to determine that a music label would have to request a full analysis from us to see certain market trends that might influence in that. Scores between 4.00 and 7.00 tend to denote moderate to low hit potential. While given the right kind of promotion and enough public repetition is can be argued that any song can become a hit of some sort, we help labels identify those songs that will rise the charts and sell in the stores with less resistance than other songs. So generally speaking you want to shoot for a score over 7.00.

BUT there is a major caveat: There are three factors to making a hit song:
a. The song must be good from an A&R perspective. That is it must sound like a hit song to human ears.
b. It must have optimal mathematical patterns. (that's where this service comes in).
c. It must be promoted well (that's where you or your label come in)
So even if your song gets an optimal score from us it does NOT mean that it is a great song. But with a high score you have one of the three requirements for a hit song and that may help you get the song listened to by the right people and help you make the other two requirements happen.

What do big hits typically score?
As stated above we tend to use 7.00 and higher as a score for a hit song because that's where they tend to score. There have been hits that score a little lower but the promotion has tended to be more aggressive. Some big hits score very low on the HSS scale but more than make up for that low score in other aspects of analyses that a label can do on your music with us if you happen to be negotiating a deal.

What if my music gets very high scores and it is still not successful?
There are three factors to making a hit song:
a. The song must be good from an A&R perspective. That is it must sound like a hit song to human ears.
b. It must have optimal mathematical patterns. (that's where this service comes in).
c. It must be promoted well (that's where you or your label come in)
So even if your song gets an optimal score from us it does NOT mean that it is a great song. But with a high score you have one of the three requirements for a hit song and that may help you get the song listened to by the right people and help you make the other two requirements happen.

Does a high score mean that my music is better and a low score mean that my music is worse?
No. A high score means that your music is mathematically similar to recent hit songs and a low score means it is dissimilar. These scores have meaning when it comes to success potential in today's market but is not meant to mean your music is good or bad. For example, when tested for today's market some really great classic hits from the 60's 70's and 80's score very low and would most likely not become hits today. That does not mean that they are not good songs and it is quite possible that if produced more in line with today's sounds they could score much higher.
A high score means that the mathematical patterns are there for your song to be successful in today's market but you must still meet the other requirements for a hit song. There are three factors to making a hit song:
a. The song must be good from an A&R perspective. That is it must sound like a hit song to human ears.
b. It must have optimal mathematical patterns. (that's where this service comes in).
c. It must be promoted well (that's where you or your label come in)
So even if your song gets an optimal score from us it does NOT mean that it is a great song. But with a high score you have one of the three requirements for a hit song and that may help you get the song listened to by the right people and help you make the other two requirements happen.

I did a report for the same song twice and the scores were different, why is that?
If you test them with a certain amount of time between testing you will get different scores because we are constantly updating the database of hits your music is compared to. As the market evolves and new hits are added to the charts we are taking them into consideration and this will also produce different scores for your music. A song that is apt for the market today may not get the same score six months from now.

Are the formula to create the scores set?
Yes. But we can change them and sometimes do as we continue to do research to make them more accurate and meaningful. The market evolves and so does music so it is only natural that we keep up with those changes. Our mathematical calculations tend to be very constant but the results you get for a certain song may change over time as we incorporate new music into our comparison databases as new hits chart each week.

How do they adapt to new trends?
This happens mostly automatically as new hits that make the charts are added to our database and old hits are taken out.

Who is Polyphonic HMI?
Founded in 2002, Polyphonic HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Grupo AIA, a leading artificial intelligence developer for business since 1988. HSS is a proprietary, artificial intelligence driven, music analysis system that can be used to predict hit probability of new music. Meet the management team.
Everyone right down to our tech leaders are music people. The technology was developed over a period of years by our parent company, Grupo AIA (www.aia.es), by scientists who have PhDs in sciences like mathematics, physics, acoustical engineering and other mind-boggling subjects. Polyphonic HMI has its own team of scientists but who's first love is music. We are the music industry taking control of the technology and putting it to use in increasing the quality of the music being released. That is something everyone can agree upon as being a good thing.

What is the Hit Database?
The Today's Hit Database (there is one for the US and another one for the UK) is an archive of every song that has been in the US weekly top 30 or the UK Official Charts for the past 5 years. Songs are weighted based upon their ranking within the Top 30. As new songs are added old songs are deleted. This is done to keep it as fresh as possible, effectively following the trends and styles as music changes over time.

What do the comparisons predict?
The comparisons predict the hit potential of a particular song. This means it is built to predict the hit potential of a song in today's music environment. Even if the songs we say are mathematically similar to your song do not sound anything like your song you must understand that many mathematical patterns are not obviously apparent. In some cases you'll just have to take our word for it. Our application is based on solid science and is never wrong in this sense. You can see how closely related your song is to past hits by looking at the affinity value. The lower the affinity value the more closely related the song is. An affinity value under 1.00 denotes close similarity while an affinity value of over 1.00 denotes similarity but less obvious and more distant similarity.

Can't any song become a hit with enough marketing?
We predict the hit potential of the song based on its own music attributes and merits. In theory, songs with a high hit potential are pieces that have a greater likelihood of "making it" with fewer promotional efforts and resources.
What about songs that are hits based on their lyrical content such as hip hop or The Angry American by Toby Keith?
Our analysis program does not take into account the lyrical content of songs. So yes, sometimes the lyrics can be the most powerful thing in a song and propel it up the charts. However good lyrics coupled with music that has optimal mathematical properties for today's market will have it much easier
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Are songs with a very low HSS Scale rating bad songs? Should they be taken off the CD?
No. Just because they do not rate highly with the HSS and the hit database does not mean they should be taken off the CD. Nor does this mean that they will not be enjoyed by the people who purchase the CD. In fact these songs may be just the thing you're looking for, a unique and fresh sound. That's why it is so important for this information to be in the hands of a seasoned A&R professional. The 'human' criteria and feel that is needed when creating a CD cannot be substituted by artificial intelligence however, it can be enhanced and that is what we do.

Do You Have Other Databases?
Music can be compared to genre specific hit databases (for example R&B, Hard Rock, Alternative, Country). Furthermore, special databases built to the particular requirements of a music label are used but not available at this time for this service.

What is an affinity value?
The affinity value is a rating that shows how closely related the mathematical patterns in one song are to another. The lower the affinity value between two songs the more closely related they are. When the same recording of a song is compared against itself the affinity value is zero. The algorithm takes into account all aspects of a song including beat, melody, harmonic variation, tempo, pitch, octave, fullness of sound and beat. This means that two different recordings of the same song (a song from a studio and a live version) will not have an affinity value of zero but normally have close affinity values.
You can see how closely related your song is to past hits by looking at the affinity value. The lower the affinity value the more closely related the song is. An affinity value under 1.00 denotes close similarity while an affinity value of over 1.00 denotes similarity but less obvious and more distant similarity.

How do you come up with the HSS ratings?
This is done through a series of mathematical calculations based on the number of past hit songs related to the song being tested. The greater the number of past hits with lower affinity values, the higher the hit potential of the new song. A rating of 7.00 or greater should be considered to be a very strong track and very closely related to what is currently popular in the market.

Who are you marketing this tool to? Will it be available to everyone?
HSS Pro is currently an exclusive tool only for use at the music label level. We are not marketing it currently to any other sector. HSS Basic is available at www.hitsongscience.com. HSS Basic provides an HSS score and comparable song information by analyzing MP3 music files for independent musicians and songwriters.

What else does this technology do?
Polyphonic HMI will also be using the technology at the production level of music creation. By teaming up with veteran artists and producers the application adds to the creative process by isolating the important attributes of the music which will allow new sounds and styles to flourish. We will be working with many veteran and Grammy winning producers. If you are a producer and would like more information about this please email us.
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